Cake Man's 2011 Oscar Predictions (for Writing) and the Distinction Between Original and Adapted Screenplays

As you know, the nominees for the 2011 Academy Awards were released earlier this week. In case you missed it, you can view the full roster of Oscar contenders here. 

Writing (Adapted Screenplay)

• “127 Hours” Screenplay by Danny Boyle & Simon Beaufoy
• “The Social Network” Screenplay by Aaron Sorkin
• “Toy Story 3” Screenplay by Michael Arndt; Story by John Lasseter, Andrew Stanton and Lee Unkrich
• “True Grit” Written for the screen by Joel Coen & Ethan Coen
• “Winter's Bone” Adapted for the screen by Debra Granik & Anne Rosellini

Writing (Original Screenplay)

• “Another Year” Written by Mike Leigh
• “The Fighter” Screenplay by Scott Silver and Paul Tamasy & Eric Johnson;
  Story by Keith Dorrington & Paul Tamasy & Eric Johnson
• “Inception” Written by Christopher Nolan
• “The Kids Are All Right” Written by Lisa Cholodenko & Stuart Blumberg
• “The King's Speech” Screenplay by David Seidler 

First off, a quick clarification. What designates something as adapted, versus original? In many cases, the source material is obvious - a book, comic book, newspaper article, TV show, or play. It can also be based on another film; technically, all sequels fall into this category, since the characters are from existent material (this is why Toy Story 3 is an adapted script). Interesting, or at least to me, is the fact that both The Fighter and The King's Speech, both based on documented material, are considered original works. This is because the fundamental distinction between adapted and original screenplays is whether there is previously published source material. In both cases, while the events might have been documents, there must have been no direct source from which the information is taken (i.e. the writers conducted research, but did not have to acquire rights to any one article in particular), and therefore created original scripts.

So, definitions out of the way, who do I think will win? Adapted is no question. I will be utterly floored if The Social Network's Aaron Sorkin doesn't walk home with the statuette. It is undeniably great screenwriting, and few of the other contenders even stack up against it. Maybe Winter's Bone, but I don't think it will come anywhere near close enough. And the Academy loves the Coens, but I'm still a bit surprised True Grit is gaining so much traction. Maybe in a weaker year it would have more of a chance, but I just don't get the hype. I give our buddy Zombie one free punch if I'm wrong.

As for Original Screenplay, the race is a bit closer. Kids Are All Right could take it (I don't expect it to take much else, outside of maybe acting). Same with King's Speech. In fact, King's Speech will probably take this one. I want to say Inception, because Nolan was snubbed for directing and I don't think the film will take the big award. Ultimately, as much as I want this to be inception, I will not be shocked if the award goes to David Seidler for King's Speech. I've not read either of the scripts, and I'll keep my fingers crossed for Nolan, but I have a feeling Seidler will nab it. Prove me wrong, Academy!

Finally, just for kicks, my thoughts on the top 10 picks.

Best Picture

• “Black Swan” Mike Medavoy, Brian Oliver and Scott Franklin, Producers
• “The Fighter” David Hoberman, Todd Lieberman and Mark Wahlberg, Producers
• “Inception” Emma Thomas and Christopher Nolan, Producers
• “The Kids Are All Right” Gary Gilbert, Jeffrey Levy-Hinte and Celine Rattray, Producers
• “The King's Speech” Iain Canning, Emile Sherman and Gareth Unwin, Producers
• “127 Hours” Christian Colson, Danny Boyle and John Smithson, Producers
• “The Social Network” Scott Rudin, Dana Brunetti, Michael De Luca and Ceán Chaffin, Producers
• “Toy Story 3” Darla K. Anderson, Producer
• “True Grit” Scott Rudin, Ethan Coen and Joel Coen, Producers
• “Winter's Bone" Anne Rosellini and Alix Madigan-Yorkin, Producers

The Academy seems to like topical films a lot, and nothing on that list is more current to me than The Social Network. It's about the biggest (or one of the leading) cultural phenomenons of today. Facebook is everywhere, and nearly everyone (except Onyx) is on it. People my age are getting hired solely to work on Facebook presence. Certain companies and corporations have even abandoned traditional websites altogether for Facebook pages. So, Social Network has current relevance going for it. In my opinion, it is also an incredibly well-made film, thoroughly engaging despite the fact that 75% of it is people sitting around various tables talking. 

For those two reasons, I'm giving the 2011 Oscar to The Social Network. 

Who do you think will win?

The Writing Week (Vol. 3) part 133 - Inspired by INCEPTION

Like millions of other people, I went and saw INCEPTION this weekend. (Don't worry, no spoilers to come for any of you who haven't yet seen it.) And, like some people, I also went to the Pitchfork Music Festival in Chicago this weekend. While Pitchfork didn't inspire the writer within me nearly as much as INCEPTION did, but escapes helped draw my mind from my post-Apocalyptic spec, which was going though one of its more important reads this weekend. 

As the week drew to a close, my manager called me to let me know that the current draft of the script (which I turned in Monday at just about the close of the LA workday) had gone off to the second executive at the production company we've been working with, along with a top reader there, to do a final logic/consistency check. That weekend reading (hopefully now completed) has the potential to generate more rewrites this week if anyone finds a flaw in any of the logic or story elements. Ideally, though, those issues won't arise. Barring any problems - which we would have missed by being too close to the material at this point to see it very objectively - the script goes on to the producer who heads the company. From there, in theory, he starts making his decision on his involvement, and I pack a bag for a trip to LA. Of course, this is all (knock on wood) on the optimistic side of the scale. 

Perhaps by pure coincidence - well, that's not entirely true; I was pushing myself to get the draft out before I left - I was out of town and out of reach for most of the weekend. Why is that good? It means I wasn't staring at my phone or email waiting for news on the script. Granted, at this point, I've become accustomed to waiting for feedback and updates. Still, when email is right there, it can be hard not to check compulsively. Out to Chicago I went to see the show, visit a good friend, and take my mind of my script. But that didn't mean I had to ignore writing completely. 

On and off throughout the weekend, I toyed with certain elements of various other projects I'm working on, trying to nail down which one I really want to dig into next. Then, on Saturday, I took some time off from thinking about my scripts to watch Christopher Nolan's INCEPTION. To say that I was humbled would be an understatement. Much in the way fans felt like the bar had been raised almost unreachably high by Watchmen when the comic book first hit shelves in the 80s, I too felt that INCEPTION attained complexities well beyond my scope. Granted, Nolan's been working on it for over a decade, but the sense of urgency, along with the depth of the story just blew me away. I know, I know; you're all looking for the plot holes and inconsistencies, for the questions that his logic seemed to overlook. I am, too, to a degree. But still, sitting in that theater, watching the film unfold, I just got to wondering, could I ever do something like that? Can I ever hope to craft a story that intricate and brilliant?

I don't necessarily think I can now, but if I said no entirely, I'd have to suspect that I'm pursuing the wrong dream.