Spec Market Analysis - 2010 Sales and Current Progress

The prolific Scott Myers, over at Go Into the Story, has done another incredible job tracking the spec market. If you haven't read it, a) I suggest you do so, and b) here's a bit of a recap.

First, while we posted a 2010 spec sale analysis a while ago, we didn't follow up on it - even though it only looked at the first ten months of 2010. Granted, the end of the year tends to be pretty slow in terms of acquisitions, due to festival circuits winding down, the holidays, and money drains. Still, it helps to get a year-end picture of the market.

Myers' breakdown of the 2010 spec market is really great. (Point of clarification for anyone who needs it - these sales are for original material, no sequels or adaptations.) First off, he offers a breakdown by genre, compared side by side with 2009 and 2008. The sad fact is that the industry went from 88 specs sold in 2008, to 68 the next year, and down to 55 in 2010. That's a 37.5% decrease in two years. The non-mathematical way of saying this, is that "it blows."

You can see the breakdown here:

2008 (88 sales)
COMEDY 41
ACTION 13
DRAMA 12
THRILLER 10
FANTASY 3
SCIENCE FICTION 3
ADVENTURE 2
DISASTER 2
FAMILY 1
HORROR 1

2009 (68 sales)
COMEDY 26
THRILLER 12
ACTION 11
DRAMA 7
SCIENCE FICTION 4
ROMANTIC COMEDY 3
FAMILY 1
FANTASY 1
HEIST 1
HORROR 1
MURDER MYSTERY 1

2010 (55 sales)
COMEDY 16
ACTION 14
THRILLER 10
SCIENCE FICTION 7
DRAMA 4
FAMILY 2
FANTASY 1
MYSTERY 1

The next breakdown is by studio. This list is helpful and interesting to look at, but not quite as useful as some of the other data, since most writers are not submitting directly to these companies. (If you're querying studios directly without invites to do so... let me know how that's working for you, as it's considered a major no-no and, in many cases, rookie move.) Your rep will target these buyers, and just because Universal might have gone from 6 spec purchases to 1, that does not mean that you won't be that one next year if you have the right material and team.

The studio info brings us to the next bit of data, which really useful for anyone looking to break into the industry through querying reps - an analysis of the sales by representatives. This list includes both managers and agents, and as he advises, the numbers might not quite add up, since many writers will have both, rather than one or the other. When you're trying to get representation, pay attention to which managers and agents seem to have the most success within the market now. Of course, managers will often handle far fewer clients than an agency, so a smaller number of sales via one of those companies is not a huge issues. (Personally, I feel that new writers should gravitate more toward managers to begin with, but that's a post for a later time.)

The study concludes with two final bits of info. The first is a look at the top sales by price tag. While it's fun to dream about what's possible with that first big sale, keep in mind that everything has to be in place for something like this to happen - talent and directors attached, interest from more than just one buyer, the right material at the right time. Otherwise, you can wind up in an option scenario, like the one I discussed two weeks ago.

Finally, Myers takes a look at the sales by first-time writers. This is good info to have, especially the bits about their history. While not full biographies, some of these posts shed a bit of light on how these scribes landed that first big sale.

Now that the detailed 2010 analysis is done, let's take a quick look - again, through Go Into the Story - at what 2011 is shaping up to be. First off, the good news (though it's all relative and must be looked at in the greater context of the industry as a whole), is that there were already 6 spec sales made in one week in March! That's ridiculous. And ridiculously good, especially when taken in context of the preceding year's stats. More so, though, Myers links to this article, which hints that the market in general might be heating up for 2011. Whether that means that 2011 will end at the same level as 2009 or even 2008 has yet to be seen, but after a year or more of doom and gloom, it's nice to know that at least some insiders are noting a change for the better.

In light of all this info, I'll borrow a phrase from our old friend, LoKor: "Write on."